1) At 0500edt Hurricane Irene was located near 34.1N/76.5W, which is 35 miles S of Cape Lookout, NC and 90 miles SW of Cape Hatteras
2) Irene is moving NNE at 14 mph
a) little change in speed or heading during the next 12-18 hours, but Irene will start to increase in speed tonight and then accelerate to the NNE during Sun. It will be moving NNE at 25-30 mph as it crosses New England on Sun
3) The Hurricane Center is calling max sustained winds of 90 mph
a) 1 weather buoy NW of Irene has had gusts close to 80 mph
b) central pressure, measured by air recon is still 952mbs, so there has not been much weakening, at all
4) It appears Irene will track just E of New Jersey late tonight/1st thing Sun morning
a) landfall looks to be near Long Beach, western Long Island, which is just E of NYC around 1000edt Sun morning and then near or just E of Stamford, CT just before 1100edt
b) Irene will be near just N of Concord, NH by sunset Sunday and into eastern Quebec after midnight Sun night
5) Irene is a very large hurricane
a) gale extend 240-250 miles to the E
b) hurricane force winds will extend 65-75 miles E of Irene Sun morning
c) more importantly, there will be massive storm surge along and E of the low’s track, which could reach 10-14 feet from Long Island to Cape Cod and Buzzards Bay. The storm surge will be less, probably only 5-7 feet in Long Island Sound. The storm surge will reach 6-10 feet from Cape Ann to the Maine coast Sun afternoon and evening
Specific effects from Irene
Outer banks of NC/Lower Chesapeake Bay
1) Irene will cross the Outer Banks of North Carolina today with wind gusts to 100 mph
a) Irene will pass E of the Lower Chesapeake tonight, mainly later this evening and E to NE to N winds will gust to 70-80 mph
2) Torrential rains of 6-10 inches are likely
3) Storm surge will reach 10-14 feet on the Outer Banks and 6-9 feet on the Virginia/Delmarva coastline
4) Winds will be W and NW Sun morning and slowly diminishing from south to north
NYC and western Long Island –
1) Irene will pass over or just E of this area Sun morning
a) landfall on Long Beach, Long Island around 1000edt Sun and near or just E of Stamford, CT just before 1100edt
2) Shower bands will arrive this afternoon with torrential rains later Sat evening thru Sun morning
a) rains will diminish quickly once Irene passes to the N, but up to 6-10 inches of rain is likely with very serious flooding
4) E winds will gust to 80-90 mph near and just E of the center Sun morning
a) peak winds W of the center will be 70-75 mph in gusts from the NE, but
b) once the low passes, winds will shift into the W and gust to 70-80 mph for 2-3 hours
c) this is a very large hurricane, so winds will be slow to diminish Sun afternoon
5) Storm surge will reach 10-14 feet on the S side of Long Island and up to 5-7 feet on Long Island Sound
a) the Long Island Sound surge will occur Sun morning, while the seas will remain very high on the S side of Long Island thru much of Sun afternoon
Tides for Rye Beach –
Low: 04:56AM -0.3 ft High: 10:44AM 8.4 ft
Low: 5:05PM -0.3 ft High: 10:59PM 8.7 ft
Oyster Bay
Low: 05:17AM -0.3 ft High: 11:17AM 8.2 ft
Low: 05:35PM -0.2 ft High: 11:36PM 8.6 ft
Eastern Long Island and Newport
1) Winds will be E-SE early Sun morning shifting to S, SW, and W late Sun morning and afternoon
2) Winds will gust to 60-70 kts with the easterlies and up to 70-80 kts briefly as the winds shift to S, but
a) SW-W winds may gust to 60-70 kts much of the afternoon
3) 1st showers arrive this afternoon
a) torrential rains arrive this evening, but taper to squally showers Sun morning
b) rainfall of 4-7 inches likely
4) Big storm surge of 10-14 feet is likely Sun morning and 1st half of Sun afternoon
Tides for Newport
Low: 01:14AM -0.1 ft High: 07:37AM 4.3 ft
Low: 1:15PM -0.3 ft High: 07:57PM 4.6 ft
Sag Harbor
Low: 04:11AM -0.1 ft High: 10:09AM 3.0 ft
Low: 04:25PM 0.0 ft High: 10:29 PM 3.3 ft
Cape Cod and the Islands
1) Winds will back into the E this evening and then veer thru the SE and into the S later Sun morning
a) winds will gust to 60 kts late Sat night/Sun morning
b) could be another period of 60-65 kts of wind as winds shift thru the S into the SW and W Sun morning into the afternoon
c) there could be an extended period of strong W winds on the back side of Irene – winds will finally diminish after midnight Sun night
2) A few showers arrive this afternoon with some torrential rains tonight, but
a) rain will be more showery and squally during Sun
b) total rainfall 2-4 inches
3) The storm surge will be a big problem with 8-12 feet possible from Buzzards to the S side of Cape Cod and on the Islands
4) Irene will pass well W of this area, but still have a big impact, especially the surge!
Tides for Edgartown on Sunday
Low: 05:13 AM -0.1 ft High: 12:04PM 2.0 ft
Low: 5:29PM -0.1 ft High: 12:21AM – 2.3 ft
Tides for Woods Hole (little Harbor)
Low: 03: 35AM -0.0 ft High: 08:09 AM 1.7 ft
Low: 03:36 PM -0.1 ft High: 08:29 PM 1.8 ft
Mon AM
Maine and Nova Scotia
1) By the time Irene moves N-NE into Interior Maine by later Sun PM/evening, it should be downgraded to a tropical storm.
a) Would expect top winds down to <75 mph, but
2) Look out for increasing E winds during Sun AM, which will shift into SE in the PM to S-SE and S during late PM/evening.
a) max wind from SE to S or S-SW, possible gusting to 60 kts thru 1900
3) With this stronger SE to S wind, look out for a large storm surge, possible up to 6-9 ft above normal
4) Rainfall totals to 3-6 inches possible, higher over interior Maine and NH
Tides for Portland on Sunday
Low: 04:42AM -0.5 ft High: 10:55AM 9.7 ft
Low: 04:55PM -0.3 ft High: 11:11PM 10.9 ft
Low: 05:28AM -0.9 ft
Tides for SW Harbor on Sunday
Low: 03:58AM -0.6 ft High: 10:34 AM – 10.9 ft
Low: 04:14PM -0.3 ft High: 10:52 PM – 12.0 ft
Low: 04:44AM – 1.0 ft Mon AM
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